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How long will it take to complete this Old World to New World shift? My guess? The end is near when you can bootstrap a new iPad application on an iPad. When you can comfortably do that without pining for a traditional desktop, the days of Old World computing are officially numbered.

stevenf.com - I need to talk to you about computers. I’ve been… - Another great piece about computer technology, this time from Steven Frank of Panic.

His distinction between Old and New World computing echoes the distinction I described between traditional desktop computers and personal/mobile computers, devices that produce and devices that consume, respectively. What Steve does here is articulate the point I was merely hinting at; that in order for a true revolution to begin with a New World device like the iPad, devices like the iPad must be capable of developing applications as well as using them.

The tech industry will be in paroxysms of future shock for some time to come. Many will cling to their January-26th notions of what it takes to get “real work” done; cling to the idea that the computer-based part of it is the “real work”.

It’s not. The Real Work is not formatting the margins, installing the printer driver, uploading the document, finishing the PowerPoint slides, running the software update or reinstalling the OS.

The Real Work is teaching the child, healing the patient, selling the house, logging the road defects, fixing the car at the roadside, capturing the table’s order, designing the house and organising the party.

Fraser Speirs - Blog - Future Shock - This is one of the best things I’ve ever read about technology. Just read it.

The Line Between Consumption and Production

This morning I wrote that Apple seems to be “drawing a distinct line between desktop computers and personal computers, where personal means “mobile.’” I want to elaborate a bit more on this distinction.

From 1984 to 2001, Apple basically had the Mac, a multipurpose personal computer that served as both a way to produce and consume content. In 2001, Apple introduced the iPod, a device designed and engineered expressly for the consumption of music. In 2003, they introduced the iTunes Store, a music distribution platform to feed new iPod owners with legally obtainable music. It would go on to become a comprehensive multimedia content platform just a few years later.

Now for a short digression: The 2000s were an age of increasingly vigorous information consumption. As more information and media became available to anyone with Internet access, two things happened: there became a greater demand than ever for access to that information and media; and computing technology had progressed to a point where “just-enough” computing was more than enough to consume this information anywhere.

This is just one reason why the release of the iPhone in 2007 was a bonafide technological revolution. Watching movies, listening to music, making phone calls, and surfing the web—all on one device. It was groundbreaking to see something its size do all those things at once, and not only do them, but with style as well.

But perhaps the most remarkable capability it had was you could write with it. Email and text messages proved to be only the beginning as one year later Apple would give third-party developers the ability to write applications for the iPhone and its phone-less companion, the iPod touch. It’s been a runaway success. But it is still primarily a device of consumption.

The iPad is the beginning of Apple bringing the iPhone platform back full-circle to the Mac, to be a platform of production as well as consumption. Apple is making iWork for it, and that means people will be creating documents, presentations, and spreadsheets with a touch screen tablet computer. That, I believe, is why Alan Kay made his now-famous remark: “Make the screen five inches by eight inches, and you’ll rule the world.”

It remains to be seen how the iPad will perform in the marketplace. And it remains to be seen if it will succeed. But this distinction of the personal, mobile computer from the old-fashioned desktop personal computer, and the seeds of its becoming a platform of production as well as consumption, is undoubtedly the reason Apple considers the iPad a revolutionary product.

Of Magic and Mirrors

Earlier today Apple announced the iPad, their “most advanced technology in a magical and revolutionary device at an unbelievable price.” Along with many others, my first impression was a little cynical; I tweeted, “Basically, Apple’s vision of the future of computing is a giant iPod touch.”

In all fairness, that’s exactly what the iPad is. But everything that has changed between the iPhone/iPod touch and the iPad, and everything that has stayed the same, are all reasons that make it an amazing product. So it’s a big iPod touch. That’s exactly how Apple designed it. One of the biggest problems the industry has had for years is how to acquaint consumers with the idea of using a tablet. Apple has pulled this off handily by making the iPad, from a user standpoint, a mere evolution of the iPhone. Its familiarity is a tremendous selling point, one which I don’t feel can be overstated.

The other brilliant move Apple has pulled is the price point. For the cost of an iPhone without a contract, Apple is offering you their latest creation that has access to all 140,000 iPhone apps and games. Combine this with an offer to get unlimited 3G data access for $30 a month and a new class of applications made possible by the device’s size and power, and you’ve got an amazing value proposition.

That’s the business-oriented perspective on it. The real question on everyone’s mind is, “how will people use it?” It’s an obvious question, but the implications of asking it are indicative of how important this product is. To ask it is to ask, what does the iPad mean for computer users? Which in this day and age means, what does it mean for the world of technology?

For starters, a couple things. The iPad is the first actual touch computer. It is Apple’s bet on not only the evolution of the iPhone platform, but on the future of personal computing as a whole. I don’t believe for a moment that it’s intended to replace desktop computers (my buddy Stevie doesn’t think so either), but I think it is drawing a distinct line between desktop computers and personal computers, where personal means “mobile.”

One of the first things Jobs spoke about onstage was that “Apple is the largest mobile devices company in the world.” As I see it, that was his way of saying that Apple has more experience, is better qualified, and more capable of being the personal computing company than any other company in the world. In John Gruber’s words,

…this is Apple’s way of asserting that they’re taking over the penthouse suite as the strongest and best company in the whole ones-and-zeroes racket.

It is important to note that Apple has not positioned the iPad as a replacement for anything. It is intended as a middle-class product between the iPhone and the Mac. In that regard they are playing it safe and sticking to their strengths.

That said, this product, this device, this thing is not an anomaly. It’s not an experiment, it’s not a sideshow. They’re not calling it magical because it’s a clever smoke and mirrors show; they’re calling the iPad magical because it’s going to change the way we use computers.